Black Friday–Cyber Monday Sales Forecast to Top $85 Billion
Bain & Company projects 8.75% sales growth over the BFCM weekend, nearly double its full holiday season forecast.
Black Friday through Cyber Monday weekend sales are expected to surpass $85 billion this year, according to a new forecast from Bain & Company, as consumer participation in the marquee shopping period climbs to its highest level in recent years.
Bain projects 8.75% sales growth over the five-day Black Friday–Cyber Monday stretch compared with the same period a year ago — a pace that nearly doubles the consulting firm's broader holiday season growth estimate of 4.5%. The divergence suggests shoppers are increasingly concentrating their spending into the concentrated promotional window rather than spreading purchases across the full November–December calendar.
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Seven in ten U.S. consumers — 70% — say they plan to shop on Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or both, up from 64% the prior year. The six-percentage-point jump in planned participation indicates that retailers who invest heavily in BFCM promotions stand to capture an outsized share of total holiday budgets.
The forecast underscores a broader shift in consumer behavior, with deal-seeking shoppers gravitating toward events that offer clear, time-limited discounts rather than browsing throughout the season. Analysts note that the trend places added pressure on merchants to front-load inventory and staffing resources for the late-November window while managing margin exposure on deep promotional pricing.
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